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    « Ryan Lochte Tested by Knee Injury - S.I.com | Main | More programs teaching minority kids to swim - MSNBC »

    July 31, 2010

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    David Rieder

    I agree that Chloe is due for a big break-out, but I don't think it will be enough to crack the huge depth the U.S. has in either of those events. She will certainly be in the top four in the 400 and swim it at Pan Pacs, but it could be tough for her to swim a 4:04, say, to make top two. Same with the 200. Making top-four will take 1:57-low at least, and the best I can see her hitting this year is 1:58, maybe.

    Thoman has been building confidence all year, from the short course world record, through Charlotte, where that 53.7 gave him even more confidence. He told me two weeks before he wanted to be a 53.7, and he got it. That means he will probably be around his goal time (a.k.a. best time, 52.51) by Irvine. Not sure Grevers can get down that low, even after his shaved 53.0 in Austin. Peirsol has quiet confidence as always; I predicted him for second in both backstrokes, but I could definitely regret that.

    I think the second day of Nationals is my favorite. 200 free and 100 back for both genders, four of the deepest events for Team USA. And then the 200 fly with some Phelps guy.

    Really appreciate the shout-out and facebook link!

    GMM

    Chloe....? I'm banking on a breakout this summer. If it doesn't happen, I think it will by next year....

    Thoman winning 100m back? He's got some hardcore training under Marsh, and Thoman looks incredibly fit... I like your pick. I'd be happy to see Thoman win. It's tough though. You get to know these great swimmers, and you get emotional about your choices. Matt's just a good guy, aside from being so talented. And Aaron's the model Olympian. You want all Olympians to be like him, to carry themselves with so much grace.....

    David... I bow to your SWIM GEEKNESS, and appreciate it.

    For anyone who wants to geek-out on swimming, you can find David on Facebook, where you can also find links to his blog:
    http://www.facebook.com/pages/David-The-Swim-Geek-Rieder/101651683226140?ref=ts

    David Rieder

    The sprints will be fast and furious. I think Nathan Adrian is the big favorite in both, and the 100 could be a big win. The 50 will be tight with Schneider, GWG, Jones, Feigen, etc., etc. Don't think it would be such a surprise for Schneider to make the Team USA now!

    I agree that Berens will have an awesome 200 free. Once again, that will be a great, tight race. Really wanna see Dave Walters take it out with Phelps, which he has the ability to do. Ricky, along with Lochte and Vanderkaay and even Dwyer, will close down Phelps and Walters at the end. I see Phelps winning in a 1:44-mid to high, with at least three guys 1:46-mid or better. A sub-1:46 would be awesome for Ricky and definitely doable.

    Soni and Vollmer will both have outstanding swims. Soni could challenge world record in the 200. She will also have a really good 100 breast, maybe 1:05-low or better. Hardy is a big wildcard. Could be 1:05-low, and she could just as easily be 1:07-low. She's not the most consistent.

    I do think that you're overestimating Sutton in the shorter distances. I see her in a tight battle with Kate Ziegler in the 800 free, in a four-way race in the 400 free (where I see Hoff and Schmitt going 1-2, as well as in the 200), but the most she has is an outside shot to get on the 4x200 free relay. Way too hard to be good at the 200 up to the 10k. If because of nothing but depth in the event, getting into the event individually will be extremely challenging, at least through 2012. There is Vollmer, Schmitt, Hoff, and Knutson as a tough top-four and a large chase group behind them.

    100 back will be good. Gonna be tight. Based on what we've seen so far this year and past experiences, I'll take Thoman first, Peirsol barely second, Grevers just behind in third, and a bunch more guys at 53. Top three could be under 53 for sure.

    Enjoy the meet Mel! THE swim geek will unfortunately be at home with his eyes glued to your webcast and live results, and scoring out predictions and figuring out what to make of it all!

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